The Orb of Chance is a fascinating and sometimes frustrating crafting currency in Path of Exile 2 that players use to turn normal (white) items into magic, rare, or unique items. Its allure lies in the possibility of obtaining powerful unique gear by chancing, but success rates and strategies around this method require understanding to make the most of the gamble.

Odds and Mechanics
Chancing an item with an Orb of Chance means applying the orb to a normal item that has at least one unique counterpart in the game. The orb’s effect is random: the item may become magic, rare, or unique, or sometimes no change at all. The probability of hitting a unique item is not uniform; it varies depending on several factors, most notably the rarity tier of the unique itself and the base type of the item.

Common uniques have a higher chance of appearing through chancing, often a few percentage points, while very rare or tier 0 uniques like Dream Fragments or Astramentis have an extremely low chance—well below 1%. For example, chancing for Shavronne’s Satchel on a fine belt base has about a 1.2% chance, whereas some rare bow uniques may have rates up to 15%, making the base item choice critical for efficient chancing. Because of this, players who trade or watch the market for poe 2 currency for sale often stockpile resources to support long chancing attempts.

Because of this wide spread in odds, many players might go through hundreds or even thousands of Orbs of Chance without success on highly coveted uniques. The outcome is always random and does not improve with repeated attempts, reflecting typical RNG (random number generation) mechanics.

Tips for Effective Chancing

1. Choose the Right Base Items: Always use the Orb of Chance on the specific base item that corresponds to the unique you want. This is essential since not all bases have unique versions and wasting orbs on incompatible bases guarantees no unique.

2. Target Moderately Common Uniques: Instead of going after the rarest legendaries, try chancing for moderately common unique items that provide solid power spikes and have better odds. This approach increases the chance of early success and helps build your arsenal.

3. Bulk Chancing: Some players save up dozens or hundreds of Orbs to chance in bulk instead of one-by-one to speed up the process. While this does not change the odds, it often helps with managing inventory and trading.

4. Market Awareness: Unique item meta relevance and trading demand fluctuate. Chancing currently popular uniques can either net useful gear for your build or valuable trade currency. Keeping track of prices is also a good way to find cheap poe 2 currency opportunities.

5. Use Supplemental Items: In some cases, items like "Omen of Fortune" guarantee that the next orb used will produce a unique on a valid base. Such items are rare but highly valuable tools for chancing.

Best Bases to Chance
Bases that contain more common or multiple uniquely chanced items tend to be the best bets. Examples include:

• Emerald Rings: They have a few valuable uniques with moderate chance rates.

• Fine Belts: Despite the low chance for rare uniques like Shavronne’s Satchel, fine belts often have multiple unique options.

• Recurve Bows: These have a relatively higher chance to yield powerful uniques like Splinterheart.

• Simple weapons and armor bases with multiple known unique variants—these increase the chance of hitting something valuable.

Chancing for tier 0 uniques like Kaom's Heart or Dream Fragments is an extremely high-risk strategy due to the very low drop chance, and players should be mentally prepared for heavy resource consumption without a guaranteed payoff.

The Orb of Chance is an exciting but RNG-heavy crafting method that invites players to gamble or strategically chase unique gear. Success depends heavily on choosing the right base, understanding odds, and managing expectations. While it’s unlikely to yield the most powerful uniques quickly, it offers a unique form of player-driven item acquisition with the thrill of chance and potential high reward. Balancing patience, choice, and budget will help make chancing a more enjoyable aspect of a Path of Exile 2 journey.